Still, I can agree that in some respects, it would be more correct to look at either (1) the 100 best splits or (2) the splits of the 100 best placed teams in the relay (according to final standing in the relay). I’d say (2) would actually be better, as what we want to assess here is the difficulty of the control, on not the time for somebody who takes the control perfectly. We’ve already looked at the fastest splits, and can see that it is possible to run the controls with the same speed. As Tuomo says another option would also be to look at the median, but I think looking at the 100 best placed team is a nice way to do it (I could of course have picked the 200 best placed, 300 … – but we already know that the time lost/gained will gradually increase from the value calculated below to 3:40 when including more teams).

Unfortunately the day has only 24 hours, so it takes too much time to give you all you want. But at least I put my script through to pick up the average of 100 best times and the average of times of 100 best finishing teams and did some quick calculations:

150-100: Av. 100 best splits 02:46 – Av. 100 best teams 03:10
100-146: Av. 100 best splits 06:30 – Av. 100 best teams 06:51
150-177: Av. 100 best splits 06:48 – Av. 100 best teams 07:04
177-146: Av. 100 best splits 02:16 – Av. 100 best teams 02:26
160-152: Av. 100 best splits 01:35 – Av. 100 best teams 01:42
152-156: Av. 100 best splits 08:23 – Av. 100 best teams 09:45
156-55: Av. 100 best splits 00:50 – Av. 100 best teams 00:52
160-196: Av. 100 best splits 03:25 – Av. 100 best teams 04:09
196-102: Av. 100 best splits 07:14 – Av. 100 best teams 08:30
102-55: Av. 100 best splits 00:49 – Av. 100 best teams 00:51

A quick look at these times (you can check more if you have time) indicates that

• The difference for the average 100 best placed teams gives a time earned or lost of 1:11 for the second forking part (i.e. 2:22 between the “lucky” and “unlucky” teams). For the average 100 best splits gives
• The difference for the 100 best split times gives a time earned or lost of 0:30

http://madiventures.blogspot.com/2011/06/jukola-2011-1st-leg-short-view-to.html

But there is also about 22 s cap between legal combination, running order section in leg 1 or leg 2. Open areas are not so much faster in leg 2, but many green section are => open area forks in leg1 and green forks in leg2 = lucky winner always.