Grouping: EOC Middle Final

Jan Kocbach June 2, 2008 Events 3 Comments

Heated discussions have errupted after the grouping analysis of the Long Final and Long Qualification published at World of O the last days (see e.g. in the comments section of this article). The present article gives a similar analysis of the EOC Middle Final – again provided by Henning Spjelkavik (more about the background for these analyses here). Spjelkavik has even improved the graphical output, to make it possible to see which runner is running first in the pack – and also the spacing in seconds between the runners. Improved graphics have now also been made available for the Long Final – which e.g. show the (well-known?) fact that the winner Dmitriy Tsvetkov was first in his pack for all controls except one.

Note that the purpose of these graphics is not to single out any individuals as a cheater, but rather to show that grouping potentially influences the results. Being in a pack with another runner for a large part of the course does not mean that a runner has been cheating – that is very difficult to prove without being in the forest and filming the runners with a video camera.

Some observations

Winner of the Middle Distance in the Mens class, Thierry Gueorgiou, was running in a pack along with Valentin Novikov (6th in the end) from the second control until the last (23rd) control, with exception of one control. From control number 4 Matthias Müller (18th in the end) was also with them. According to the splits, Thierry Gueorgiou was first only at 3 of 21 controls. Novikov was first at 18 of 21 controls. Müller was never first. Note that Gueorgiou was mostly between 10 and 14 seconds behind Novikov – very seldom closer than 5 seconds.
Martins Sirmais (2nd in the end) was in a pack with David Andersson (15th in the end) from control 4 until control 15. Sirmais was in the lead at all controls.
Pasi Ikonen (3rd in the end) was never in a pack with anybody.
Daniel Hubmann (4th in the end) and Francois Gonon (15th in the end) were in a pack from control number 9 until the last control – the lead shifting. This pack behaved in a different way than the Gueorgiou-Novikov pack, in that there was mostly only 1-3 seconds between the runners.
Emil Wingstedt (5th in the end) was never in a pack with anybody.
Mats Troeng (6th in the end) was never in a pack with anybody.

The above observations indicate that grouping might have influenced on the results – although it is impossible to know for sure. This shows, that even over the Middle distance with winning times of around 35 minutes, some sort of separation method should be applied if (and note the if here) the goal is that grouping should not influence on the results.

Explanation of graphics

Note! Colored boxes in the below figures show that two runners have been within 15 seconds of each other at a control. Boxed in the same color show that two runners are together. In each box, the position the runner has at this control is shown. For the first runner in a pack, the number in the box is shown in bold text. By holding the mouse pointer over a box for about a second, you get a tooltip with how many seconds the selected runner was behind the first runner in the pack at this control.

Note also! Being within 15 seconds of each other does not necessarily mean that the runners get help from each other for the orienteering or to keep up higher speed – but if two runners are within 15 seconds of each other in a large part of the course, it indicated that at least one of the runners has gained time due to the grouping. These types of graphs are especially interesting in order to find out how effective separation methods are in orienteering.

Graphical Grouping analysis

Middel Final – Women

Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17
Zinchenko Lyudmyla	50	45	47	41	41	45	45	48	45	45	45	44	46	47	49	50	50	49
Voskoboynikova Tatiana	50	48	46	47	46	45	46	47	46	47	47	46	44	44	45	45	45	45
Gyurko Fanni	50	35	43	49	49	49	49	49	47	46	46	45	43	43	42	42	42	42
Dockalova Martina	50	21	33	43	42	39	39	38	39	38	38	50	50	50	50	48	48	48
Mackenzie Mhairi	50	26	42	31	28	24	24	25	27	28	28	27	25	25	25	27	28	28
Kondratyeva Aleksandra	50	43	41	28	40	42	41	40	38	40	40	40	41	41	41	41	41	41
Linde Ane	50	44	44	40	37	37	38	35	35	37	37	37	38	40	39	39	39	39
Fasting Mari	50	21	15	10	12	10	11	16	11	15	15	16	32	33	31	32	31	31
Soderlund Line	50	29	40	37	35	36	36	41	43	44	44	43	42	42	43	43	43	44
Zurcher Sandra	50	26	34	44	44	45	47	43	48	49	49	48	48	48	47	47	47	47
D’Harreville Karine	50	46	45	38	34	34	34	39	41	39	39	38	37	37	37	38	38	38
Cejka Caroline	50	50	50	46	43	40	40	37	37	36	36	36	35	36	36	36	36	36
Riddervold Marianne	50	29	29	30	24	27	22	20	19	18	17	17	18	17	16	16	16	16
Johanson Liis	50	34	38	48	48	47	44	42	41	41	42	39	39	39	40	40	40	40
Jurenikova Eva	50	26	25	37	33	31	30	32	32	32	32	30	29	29	28	25	25	24
Rihma Annika	50	22	36	42	46	46	43	45	44	43	43	42	45	45	44	44	44	43
Goffre Anais	50	36	39	39	39	41	42	46	50	50	50	49	49	49	48	49	49	50
Abzalone Zanda	50	47	48	50	50	50	50	50	49	48	48	47	47	46	46	46	46	46
Elson Grace	50	49	49	46	47	48	48	44	42	42	42	41	40	38	38	37	37	37
Valaite Indre	50	14	33	29	38	35	35	34	33	34	34	34	36	35	36	35	35	35
Vercellotti Capucine	50	6	15	10	22	17	18	19	17	18	18	20	21	21	20	21	22	21
Lindeqvist Katri	50	31	10	15	10	10	10	9	6	7	7	8	7	7	8	9	9	8
Egseth Elise	50	34	31	33	37	38	38	36	36	35	35	35	34	34	32	33	34	34
Stara Zdenka	50	9	15	25	31	30	28	30	28	29	29	28	26	27	26	26	26	26
Rollins Sarah	50	14	20	22	20	18	17	21	20	20	20	18	17	16	18	21	22	21
Petrova Irina	50	34	27	34	29	26	25	24	22	23	23	23	22	22	22	21	19	19
Muller Lea	50	29	36	20	17	13	14	10	8	8	8	8	8	9	10	8	9	9
Ostrikova Evgenia	50	21	22	35	32	29	26	29	26	25	25	25	33	32	33	32	32	32
Soes Signe	50	11	7	8	8	6	7	6	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5
Rantala Maria	50	17	17	5	5	5	5	8	16	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	13
Billstam Annika	50	3	5	6	25	22	19	17	21	21	21	21	19	18	17	18	18	18
Brozkova Radka	50	17	11	17	11	8	6	5	7	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6
Pauzaite Sandra	50	11	12	11	9	7	8	14	13	16	16	15	15	15	15	15	15	15
Dodin Celine	50	38	24	26	26	23	20	23	24	26	26	29	28	28	27	29	29	29
Jukkola Heli	50	40	19	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Vanjuk Merike	50	8	19	23	19	19	27	28	29	30	30	31	31	31	30	30	30	30
Johansson Sofie	50	17	9	8	21	28	23	22	34	33	33	33	27	26	34	34	33	34
Skrastina Aija	50	5	6	13	6	20	31	33	31	31	31	32	30	30	29	28	27	27
Gustafsson Linnea	50	26	16	32	27	26	32	26	23	22	22	22	20	20	19	17	18	18
Korzhova Natalia	50	21	37	27	24	21	21	19	18	19	19	19	16	19	21	22	20	22
Brozkova Dana	50	39	23	21	14	32	29	27	26	24	24	24	23	23	23	23	23	23
Novikova Yulia	50	31	28	17	16	14	13	12	13	11	11	13	13	12	12	11	11	11
Persson Lina	50	42	30	18	18	15	15	16	14	12	12	12	12	13	13	12	12	12
Ryabkina Tatiana	50	8	4	2	3	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4
Holmstrom Bodil	50	5	8	25	30	33	33	31	30	28	27	26	24	24	24	24	24	25
Hausken Anne Margrethe	50	38	27	14	16	12	13	11	9	10	10	10	9	8	7	7	7	7
Rantanen Merja	50	41	21	3	2	2	2	3	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2
Jansson Helena	50	1	1	20	13	16	16	13	16	13	13	11	11	11	11	10	10	10
Kauppi Minna	50	2	2	12	4	3	3	2	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3
Engstrand Emma	50	12	3	4	7	11	9	7	10	9	9	9	10	10	10	13	14	14

Middle Final Men

Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23
Bobach Christian	49	45	37	33	28	29	27	27	28	28	28	28	27	27	28	28	28	28	28	30	33	32	33	33
Lucan Vladimir	49	34	29	36	32	31	32	32	32	30	32	34	34	35	35	35	36	35	35	35	37	37	37	37
Christensen Christian	49	41	43	43	45	44	44	44	41	41	41	41	40	41	40	40	40	40	38	38	39	40	40	40
Bjugan Marius	49	42	39	39	37	37	38	38	34	33	33	32	32	32	34	34	34	34	33	34	34	33	33	32
Kodeda Stepan	49	46	49	49	49	49	49	49	49	49	49	49	49	49	49	49	49	48	48	48	48	48	48	48
Mihalkin Dmitry	49	31	35	32	39	39	39	39	40	40	40	40	41	40	39	39	39	39	39	39	38	38	38	38
Adamski Philippe	49	40	24	21	27	27	29	30	31	31	30	31	31	31	30	30	30	30	29	28	28	28	28	28
Gosswein Csaba	49	38	46	47	47	46	46	46	46	46	46	46	46	46	47	47	47	47	47	46	47	47	47	47
Marchuk Oleksandr	49	44	28	45	43	47	47	47	47	47	47	47	47	47	46	46	46	46	46	47	46	46	46	46
Soes Rasmus	49	24	44	44	45	43	43	43	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	44	44	44	45	45
Troan Hans	49	19	8	8	8	5	5	7	7	5	5	5	5	8	9	10	10	11	12	12	12	12	12	12
Efimov Roman	49	37	21	18	31	30	31	33	33	32	29	29	29	29	29	29	29	29	30	29	29	29	29	29
Lind William	49	49	48	48	48	48	48	48	48	48	48	48	48	48	48	48	48	49	49	49	49	49	49	49
Lund Mikkel	49	27	23	22	17	20	19	20	27	27	31	31	30	31	31	31	31	31	31	31	31	34	34	34
Holmberg Anders	49	19	45	42	42	41	42	41	44	44	44	44	44	44	44	44	44	43	44	45	45	45	43	42
Krepsta Simonas	49	33	18	19	35	35	35	35	35	34	34	36	35	33	34	32	32	32	34	33	33	31	31	31
Nielsen Christian	49	14	42	40	38	38	36	36	37	37	37	35	36	35	38	38	38	38	40	40	40	39	39	39
Krumins Janis	49	36	25	25	18	18	17	17	17	21	22	20	23	23	23	23	23	23	21	23	21	20	21	21
Kahrs Christian	49	49	32	29	25	25	24	25	24	24	25	25	24	24	24	24	24	24	24	25	26	22	23	23
Smola Michal	49	26	17	12	11	11	11	14	13	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	15	14	14	14
Weltzien Audun Hultgreen	49	10	31	26	22	24	21	21	21	19	19	19	19	18	18	18	18	18	18	21	23	26	26	26
Sulcys Nerijus	49	28	41	41	41	42	41	42	42	42	42	42	42	42	42	42	41	41	41	41	43	43	44	43
Kowalski Wojciech	49	20	27	28	23	21	20	19	18	18	18	18	18	19	19	19	19	19	17	17	18	17	17	17
Kratov Oleksandr	49	12	11	9	6	7	6	4	6	7	7	7	6	5	7	8	8	9	10	10	9	9	9	9
Ryapolov Roman	49	15	7	7	10	10	9	12	11	11	11	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	16	16	16
Ushkvarok Pavlo	49	47	33	30	26	26	28	29	29	36	36	39	39	39	41	41	42	42	42	42	41	42	42	44
Oberg Peter	49	11	9	10	7	7	10	9	9	9	9	9	9	7	5	5	5	5	6	7	11	10	10	10
Fohr Tero	49	1	15	27	20	19	25	26	23	23	21	23	21	21	20	20	20	20	19	19	19	19	19	19
Lassen Tue	49	31	34	32	29	36	34	34	36	35	35	33	33	38	37	37	37	37	37	37	36	36	36	36
Lauenstein Marc	49	29	19	24	21	22	22	23	22	23	23	22	28	28	27	27	27	27	27	27	27	27	27	27
Johnson Oli	49	17	16	16	24	23	23	22	20	20	20	21	20	20	21	21	21	21	22	21	20	23	23	23
Prochazka Jan	49	35	38	35	40	40	40	40	39	39	39	38	37	36	34	33	33	33	32	32	30	30	30	30
Stevenson Jamie	49	25	30	38	34	34	33	31	30	29	27	27	26	26	26	26	26	26	25	24	24	21	20	20
Rollier Baptiste	49	22	22	15	14	15	16	18	16	16	16	16	16	16	15	15	15	15	15	15	14	13	13	13
Tsvetkov Dmitriy	49	24	14	11	15	14	14	13	14	15	15	15	15	15	16	16	16	16	23	22	22	24	25	24
Troeng Mats	49	4	20	14	12	12	12	15	12	12	10	10	10	10	7	6	6	8	7	6	6	6	7	7
Huovila Jarkko	49	14	12	6	5	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	6	8	8	8	8	9	9	8	8	8	8
Andersson David	49	6	40	37	33	32	30	28	27	27	26	26	25	25	25	25	25	25	26	26	25	25	24	25
Ikonen Pasi	49	17	6	5	4	3	3	3	2	2	3	3	2	3	2	2	2	2	3	3	3	3	3	3
Sirmais Martins	49	10	1	1	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	3	2	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	2	2
Detkov Sergey	49	5	4	4	3	4	4	6	5	6	6	6	7	9	10	11	12	12	11	11	10	11	11	11
Gonon Francois	49	33	13	17	19	17	18	16	19	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	16	16	16	15	15	15
Hubmann Daniel	49	22	10	13	9	10	7	6	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4
Wingstedt Emil	49	7	5	20	13	13	13	11	10	11	12	12	12	12	11	9	9	6	5	5	5	5	5	5
Kostylev Egor	49	39	47	46	46	45	45	45	43	43	43	43	43	43	43	43	44	44	43	43	42	41	41	41
Karner Olle	49	8	3	3	36	33	37	37	38	38	38	37	38	37	36	36	35	36	36	36	35	35	35	35
Muller Matthias	49	43	36	34	30	28	26	24	25	25	24	24	22	22	22	22	22	22	20	18	17	18	18	18
Novikov Valentin	49	2	26	23	16	16	15	10	15	13	13	11	11	11	12	12	12	10	8	8	7	7	6	7
Gueorgiou Thierry	49	3	2	2	1	1	1	1	3	3	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1

3 comments

ML
June 2, 2008 at 12:15

>>By holding the mouse pointer over a box for about a second, you get a tooltip with how many seconds the selected runner was behind the first runner in the pack at this control.

It seems that now it is the time behind the previous runner in the pack…
ML
June 2, 2008 at 12:31

Here the womens race has some intressting points too! :-)
See: Rantanen (2.) with Hausken (7.), Kauppi (3.) with Jansson, Ryabkina (4.) with Persson, Brozkova (6.) with Bilstam, Lindequist (8.) with Elson and Vercelotti, Müller (9.) and Petrova.

I refrain from doing interpretations here, but there is a lot of influence in such a competition.
ML
June 5, 2008 at 15:11

:-)
At the womens final 41.2% of all approaches to a control were ‘not alone’. Single athletes approached 17.7% up to 100% of the controls ‘alone’.

At the mens final 46.5% of all approaches to a control were ‘not alone’. Single athletes approached 0% up to 100% of the controls ‘alone’.